Third and eight. You know a pass is coming. Bring in the nickel package, and dial up the pass rush. Stop 'em here, give the ball back to your offense and get off the field.
Of all the "keys to winning football games," success on third down is critical.
The Rams were the 19th ranked team in the NFL last season (per www.teamrankings.com), allowing teams to convert 38.6 percent of the time on third down. By comparison, they were the third ranked team in the NFL during the 2010 season, allowing teams to convert on only 33.48 percent of third down chances.
The Rams won seven games in 2010, and only two in 2011.
Of course, to complicate matters, the Rams were atrocious against the run last year. Teams averaged 31.8 attempts per game (30th in the NFL) for a whopping 152.1 yards per game (31st in the NFL). Teams actually ran the ball 49.32 percent of the time (28th in the NFL), with the Rams allowing 7.6 rushing first downs per game (29th in the NFL).
So to sum it up, the Rams were terrible against the run, and in an era of pass heavy offenses, teams ran the ball on every other play against the Rams. This meant they were always in bad "down and distance" situations on third down, meaning their offense was having to play catch up.
This meant the Rams' best playerâ€"running back Steven Jacksonâ€"was basically useless because the Rams had to pass the ball early and often, which led to the defense pinning their ears back and rushing Rams' QB Sam Bradford and this led to him getting beat to a bloody pulp.
You get the point. In one long run-on sentence, that's how the Rams finished 2-14.
What is the Rams' team strength?
What is the Rams' team strength?
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Defensive Line
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Defensive Secondary
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Linebackers
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Offensive Line
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Running Backs
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Receivers and Tight Ends
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QB Sam Bradford
So can the Rams do any better in 2012? They spent their first-round draft pick on defensive tackle Michael Brockers, a big, strong dude (6'5, 322 lbs). They also signed defensive tackle Kendall Langford (6'6, 295 lbs), who has freakish strength, as a free agent. Trevor Laws (6'1, 304 lbs) was also brought in as a free agent as part of the defensive tackle rotation.
I fully expect the Rams, with stud middle linebacker James Laurinaitis finally playing behind competent defensive tackles, to be much better against the run. This is going to create more third down chances for this defense, and those chances should be in more favorable "down and distance" situations.
This is where the Rams could be really good.
Third and eight. You know a pass is coming. Bring in the nickel package, and dial up the pass rush. Stop 'em here, give the ball back to your offense and get off the field.
The Rams will probably start rookie Janoris Jenkins and Cortland Finnegan at corner. Finnegan has All-Pro talent. Jenkins might end up being even better. The third corner will either be Bradley Fletcher, a player with a ton of starting experience who is returning from injury, or Trumaine Johnson, a talented rookie that the Rams picked in the third-round.
Good corners mean the pass rush has one extra second to get to the opposing QB. With the talent the Rams have rushing the QB, that's not even fair.
Chris Long recorded 13 sacks from his right defensive end position last year. Robert Quinn, the Rams 2011 first-round pick, recorded five sacks as a rookie in limited playing time. Quinn, as Bryan Burwell of the St. Louis Post Dispatch points out, has unlimited pass rush ability.
Throw in Brockers and Langford, who can both collapse the pocket from the defensive tackle position, and the Rams should be able to generate an unbelievable pass rush without having to send a blitzing linebacker.
How do you think the Rams will fare on third-down this season?
How do you think the Rams will fare on third-down this season?
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Great. They'll be top five in the NFL, and this will lead to a major improvement.
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Just okay. The Rams will do better on third down, but they'll still win five games or less.
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Terrible. The run defense is still terrible, so what we do on third down will be kind of like last season. It won't matter as much.
The key is stopping the run. If the Rams can do a better job in that department, expect big things on third and long. That is where the Rams' could be special.
Pressure on the QB means sacks and knockdowns, which leads to hurried throws, which means incompletions and interceptions, which means field position, which means the Rams' offense doesn't have to string together long drives, which means less pressure on the O Line to protect Bradford. This leads to more points on the board, which means the score stays close, which means the Rams can keep pounding away with the running attack, led by Steven Jackson, which leads to...
You get the point. That is one long run-on sentence to explain how the Rams might improve to 8-8 or maybe 9-7 in 2011. Don't laugh. Nobody thought Cincinnati would go from 4-12 to 9-7 either. It's the NFL. This stuff happens every year.
The nickel package is a big reason the Rams have a chance to make that kind of leap in 2012.
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