With the first pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Indianapolis Colts select Andrew Luck, quarterback, out of Stanford University.
That's how the first pick will play out, right?
So how will things shake out with the No. 2 overall pick? The St. Louis Rams own that pick, and they could surely use it to select Matt Kalil, the projected franchise left tackle out of USC, or Justin Blackmon, the game changing wide receiver out of Oklahoma State.
However, with only two franchise caliber QBs available in the first round, and so many teams needing that type of talent at the QB position, the Rams are in a great position for a trade. The question is, what team wants Robert Griffin III the most?
Breaking Down Robert Griffin III
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RG3 is a world-class athlete. He was a champion 110 and 300 meter hurdler in high school, coming up .01 seconds short of breaking the national high school record in the 300 meter hurdles. He is the best "dual-threat athlete" QB to enter the draft since Michael Vick.
Griffin shows better touch than Vick to this point in his career though, completing 72.4 percent of his passes, while throwing 36 touchdowns and only six interceptions. Griffin is highly intelligent, and all signs point to him being a "high character" player who has great intangibles.
The biggest knock on Griffin is that he played in a pass happy, spread type offense at Baylor. With more NFL teams using spread concepts, and the league being a pass happy league, this should not scare any team away from trading up to get Griffin.
With the Rams already having former No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford in place, they find themselves in a great position. The No. 2 pick in the 2012 draft is valued at 2600 points according to the ESPN.com Draft Pick Value Chart.
So what would it cost a team to move up to get RG3? Who has the pieces that might interest the Rams?
Cleveland Browns
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REASONS:
- Colt McCoy doesn't appear to be a franchise caliber QB.
- They pick early in the first round (fourth overall)
- They have multiple first round picks (No. 4 and No. 22)
WHAT WOULD IT COST: 2012 First Round Pick (No. 4 overall, 1800 points), 2012 First Round Pick (No. 22 overall, 780 points) and a 2012 Fourth Round Pick (No. 100 overall, 100 points).
HOW IT IMPACTS THE RAMS: By moving back to the fourth pick, the Rams would be guaranteed to draft either Kalil or Blackmon. With the extra first round pick, they could then address their needs at OLB, DT, or possibly even target Alshon Jeffrey (WR, South Carolina) with that extra first round pick. The extra fourth round pick could be used to add depth to another position of need.
NOTEWORTHY: Nobody tips their hand before the draft, but the Browns are in a similar position to the Rams. They need to fill multiple holes in their roster. Team president Mike Holmgren had this to say about trading away his picks:
We'd like to use our picks. But that will not prevent my car salesman friend here from wheeling and dealing during the draft. Anything's a possibility. But philosophically we need the picks to keep filling in the roster.
Washington Redskins
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REASONS:
- They used Rex Grossman as a starting QB in 2011
- They pick early in the first round (sixth overall)
- Mike Shanahan is in his third year as head coach, and he needs to win now.
WHAT WOULD IT COST: 2012 First Round Pick (No. 6 overall, 1600 points), 2012 Second Round Pick (No. 39 overall, 510 points), a 2012 Fourth Round Pick (No. 102 overall, 92 points), and a 2013 Second Round Pick (450 points, give or take).
HOW IT IMPACTS THE RAMS: By moving back to the sixth pick, the Rams are taking a chance that their top two targets, Kalil and Blackmon, will both be gone. There will be good players available with the sixth pick, but do the Rams really want to take a chance on trading quality (best player available, biggest team need) for quantity (more picks)?
By acquiring three picks in the top 40 of the draft, as well as adding a second rounder for next year's draft, the Rams would be able to fill more holes, but is it worth missing out on Blackmon or Kalil?
NOTEWORTHY: The Redskins are aggressively looking at the college QBs. As much as they'd like to sit back and wait for RG3 to fall to them, it isn't going to happen. I think the Redskins might be the most aggressive team the Rams' deal with in terms of trying to move up in the draft. Just listen to what Redskins' offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan had to say:
Everybody's looking for a franchise quarterback. You want one of those guys that there's no question about. There's probably only about five or six of them in the league. Then there's a lot of guys who can play and there's some guys who need to be replaced. You're always trying to find that one and (we're) still working to do it.
Miami Dolphins
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REASONS:
- Matt Moore was their starting QB in 2011
- They play in the same division as Tom Brady, so they kind of need a good QB.
- They will have a new head coach, which means he will want his own QB.
WHAT WOULD IT COST: 2012 First Round Pick (No. 9 overall, 1350 points), 2012 Second Round Pick (No. 42 overall, 480 points), a 2012 Third Round Pick (No. 73 overall, 225 points), a 2013 Second Round Pick (450 points, give or take), and a 2013 Third Round Pick (200 points, give or take).
HOW IT IMPACTS THE RAMS: By moving back to the ninth pick, the Rams are basically passing on the elite prospects that fill their biggest needs. However, by trading this far back, they have now set themselves up with six of the top 100 picks in this year's draft, as well as picking up two more valuable draft picks for next year's draft.
With the No. 9 pick, the Rams could target a very good player like Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama), Jonathan Martin (LT, Stanford), Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama), or a receiver like Alshon Jeffrey (WR, South Carolina) or Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame, who would be a reach at No. 9).
NOTEWORTHY: The Dolphins don't have a coach. They will bring in a new QB, and general manager Jeff Ireland is not afraid to wheel and deal. From the Palm Beach Post:
Dolphins General Manager Jeff Ireland has shown a willingness to deal picks for players, and vice versa. In 2008, he traded Chris Chambers for the second-rounder that became Chad Henne, and in 2009, he dealt two second-rounders for Brandon Marshall. Last year, he sent Washington third-, fifth- and seventh-round picks for the second-rounder that became Daniel Thomas.
So What Will the Rams Do?
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While the Rams were the worst team in the NFL for the 2011 season (come on, Indy didn't have Peyton Manning), they aren't as bad as you might think.
DEFENSE: They will get their top three corners back next season (Jerome Murphy, Ron Bartell, and Bradley Fletcher). They have two good safeties in Quintin Mickell and Darian Stewart. They have the two talented defensive ends, Robert Quinn and Chris Long. James Laurinaitis is a beast at middle linebacker.
OFFENSE: Bradford has the makings of a very good QB. Steven Jackson is a great runner, and has another very good season or two left in the tank. Lance Kendricks has loads of potential as a young tight end. Danny Amendola and Greg Salas will return from injury and hopefully pick up where they left off at the wide receiver position. The O-line is a work in progress, but Rodger Saffold and Harvey Dahl are two players the Rams can build around.
If the Rams get healthy, they have talented players at key positions. Personally, I think the Rams should look at trading to whichever team gives them the most picks. As much as I like Justin Blackmon, the Rams might be better off trading back, loading up on picks, and then picking Alshon Jeffrey plus four other players that might help the Rams instead.
This is just my gut feeling, but I think the Washington Redskins will make the Rams the best offer, so the Rams will be picking sixth in the draft.
As always, I would love to hear your feedback. What do you think the Rams should do with the second pick in the upcoming draft?
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