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Thursday, July 26, 2012

St. Louis Rams Rookies: Stat Predictions - Bleacher Report

There is arguably no better place for a rookie to make an impact on the Rams' roster this season than at wide receiver.

There will be plenty of balls to go around in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer’s version of the “Coryell” offense. Plus, Sam Bradford has a lot to prove this year after his sophomore slump.

I analyzed the last five NFL drafts, specifically the rounds where Quick (second) and Givens (fourth) were taken. There were plenty of hits in both rounds.

In the second round, it doesn’t get much better than Eddie Royal in 2008 (91 catches, 980 yards, five touchdowns) or Torrey Smith last year (50 catches, 841 yards, seven touchdowns).

In the fourth round, you can hope for nothing better than the rookie campaigns of Indianapolis’ Austin Collie (60 catches, 676 yards, seven touchdowns) or Tampa Bay’s Mike Williams (65 catches, 964 yards, 11 touchdowns).

It seems fair to expect a decent amount of receptions and yards for rookie WRs (second- round rookies average about 40 catches and 520 yards, while fourth rounders average 35 catches and 450 yards).

Touchdowns are still hard to come by for rookie WRs (no more than two or three), probably because most QBs look to veteran hands in the red zone.

Anyone who claims to know who will be the Rams’ starting wideouts this season is surely lying. But both Quick and Givens appear to be in the top four, which means they should get plenty of playing time.

I’m more confident that Quick will overachieve as a rookie than I am with Givens. Plus, Danny Amendola is sure to see a lot of balls underneath and over the middle, taking away possibilities for others.

It is worth noting, however, that Jeff Fisher hasn't had much luck with drafting WRs. Only one (Kenny Britt) had more than 23 receptions and 301 yards as a rookie.

Prediction: Quick (45 catches, 550 yards, 3 TDs); Givens (30 catches, 400 yards, 2 TDs)

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