The 2012 season for the St. Louis Cardinals got off to a roaring start. At 14-8, the Cardinals are atop the National League Central Division by three games and are tied with the second-best record in the NL. The pitching is normally solid, the defense is turning double plays, and the offense is producing more runs than usual.
Yet there is one disturbing trend in the Cardinals' camp just one month into the season. They are 1-4 in one-run games. Those types of games can make or break a team's march to the playoffs. Last season, St. Louis was 26-23 in games decided by a single run, according to Baseball Reference. In 2010, St. Louis was 20-22 in games decided by a single run when it finished five games behind the Cincinnati Reds in the NL Central. When the Cardinals made the playoffs in 2009, they were 24-21 in one-run games.
One-run games are a crucial stat when deciding how well a team is doing. St. Louis has scored 111 runs, good enough for top five in the major leagues and best in the NL. The average is five runs per game. Scoring runs at that clip will do fine against lesser competition like the entire rest of the Central Division. Against better teams such as the Washington Nationals, Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers, the run production simply won't equal as many victories. The offense has to cool off sometime, just like the ill-fated Braves did last year.
If the Cardinals are going to make the playoffs, they have got to do a better job of winning close games. Otherwise, they will sink in the standings just as fast as they got there. The reason is their record in one-run games in recent seasons. St. Louis had over 40 one-run games in each of the past three seasons. If they have a .200 record in those games this year, that's an 8-32 record. The fewest losses in one-run games they had since 2009 was 21. Add another 11 losses to that and the Cardinals need to get a much larger lead than what they have now.
I shudder to think what the Cardinals will look like at the end of May. By then, St. Louis will have played six games against the Braves and three against the Dodgers. The Milwaukee Brewers or the Reds may be in first place by then unless something changes.
The offense is doing just fine, except late in games. Perhaps relief pitching is more suspect this season. Last year, relievers were the reason why St. Louis went on a winner tear in September to clinch the final playoff spot in the NL. With just three saves in 2012, St. Louis is in the bottom five of MLB. Strikeouts are also at a premium with just 148 on the year.
The problem in one-run games is that opposition is getting timely hits whereas the pitchers suddenly fail to get outs. That's not a good situation.
William Browning has lived in southwest Missouri for over 15 years after moving to the area from St. Louis. He currently resides in Branson.
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