As good as Justin Blackmon is, there is no such thing as a "sure thing" in the NFL draft. So, as badly as the St. Louis Rams need to add playmakers for young QB Sam Bradford, the Rams have to be cautious. Whoever the Rams take with the No. 6 overall pick, he needs to be an impact player.
With so many gaping holes in this roster, they can't afford to swing and miss. They can't afford another Jason Smith debacle.
Need is a poor evaluator of talent. It makes teams overlook things that, in hindsight, were obvious red flags. So, while the Rams do need to fill needs in this draft, and receiver is definitely a position of need, they don't need to take a wide receiver for the sake of taking a receiver.
Here are three cautionary tales about teams reaching for a receiver. Hindsight being 20/20, they would all like a Mulligan.
First Cautionary Tale...
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Our first receiver had lukewarm scouting reports, with one scout saying:
That guy can run, but he played in a bad offense last year that hurt him a lot We never got a chance to see his best stuff. He's one of those guys who will be better in the NFL than he was in college.
When he ran a 4.32 at the combine, he started shooting up draft boards. All it takes is one team to fall in love on draft day, to reach to "fill that need," and the rest, as they say, is history.
Troy Williamson
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Minnesota reached up and grabbed Williamson with the seventh overall pick in the 2005 draft. He went on to catch 87 passes for 1,131 yards and four touchdowns in his entire career!
Second Cautionary Tale...
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Our second receiver had the scouts drooling over him heading into the draft. They said:
Prototype receiver with the perfect ingredients (size, strength, speed)...Flashes an explosive upfield burst and quick acceleration to easily gain advantage over the defender in deep routes...Has a sharp release off the line, using his hands well to extend and push off the defensive back...His outstanding leg drive and impressive size make it very difficult for his opponent to apply press coverage...Has superb field awareness, tracking the ball in flight while making proper body adjustments to get under the pass...
Sound familiar? You could copy and paste that same scouting report to half of the receivers in this year's draft, right?
David Terrell
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The Bears selected David Terrell with the eighth overall pick in the 2001 NFL draft. He went on to catch 128 passes for 1,602 yards and nine touchdowns in his entire career.
Chicago, much like the Rams today, was a team in constant search of a steady passing game back then, and their "need" forced them to reach for a player that obviously wasn't worthy of his draft status.
Third Cautionary Tale...
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Sorry, that picture is probably a dead giveaway, right? I just couldn't help myself.
Our final cautionary tale was a supremely talented receiver. The scouts said:
Big, strong receiver who impacts the game as both a game controlling or game breaking wide out. Constantly doubled by opponents yet goes up in a crowd, adjusts to the errant throw and snags the ball out of the air away from defenders. Easily out muscles or out positions opponents, looks the ball in and makes the difficult catch with defenders draped all over him.
Fast, beats defenders down the field and has the "get up and go" speed which enables him to run to the deep throw. Effective running after the catch picking up a lot of yardage either breaking tackles or running away from opponents. Intimidating and has defenders playing back on their heels.
He was so good that some scouts thought he was the best player in the draft, period, regardless of position. However, there were also some negative reports on this guy.
Not a good route runner; choppy in and out of his breaks, does not stay low on exit and 10ds to round off routes. Lacks the quick release off the line as well as focus and concentration. Makes the seemingly impossible catch on one play yet falls asleep on the next snap and lets easy passes slip through his hands which will break your heart.
Translation: "He is a freak athlete, and he's talented for sure, but he's really lazy and he has never committed himself to being a great football player."
The writing was on the wall.
Charles Rogers
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Charles Rogers could have been mentioned in the same breath as Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson. Heck, if Rogers had any type of work ethic, there probably wouldn't have ever been a Calvin Johnson in Detroit.
Detroit selected Rogers with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2003 NFL draft. Rogers battled injuries and personal problems, and he wound up only playing 14 games in the NFL. He managed only 36 catches for 440 yards and four touchdowns during his career.
To this day, Charles Rogers is mentioned as one of the biggest busts in the history of the NFL draft.
So, What Does All This Mean for the Rams?
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Yesterday, I ran my mock draft article. I think the Rams will wind up with a combo of Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama)Â and Stephen Hill (WR, Georgia Tech). Hill ran a sub 4.4 in his 40 at the combine, causing him to skyrocket up a lot of draft boards.
Does this mean he will be the next Troy Williams, a guy who tricked us all in the "underwear Olympics" that is the NFL Combine? Or will he be a solid NFL player? Only time will tell.
Or, will the Rams end up with Justin Blackmon with the No. 6 overall pick? Will Blackmon wind up being a hyper-productive receiver, in the Terrel Owens mold that his scouting reports suggest? Or will he just wind up being another David Terrell? Only time will tell.
My point is, the Rams should only take a receiver with one of these premium picks if they believe that player is going to be an NFL-caliber starting wide receiverâ€"something the team currently lacks. There are plenty of good receivers in the NFL that were not first-round picks.
The New England Patriots' two starting wide receivers were not high draft pick:. Wes Welker was undrafted, and Deon Branch was a second-round pick. The New York Giants two starting receivers who were also not high draft picks: Victor Cruz was undrafted, and Mario Manningham was a third-round pick.
Those two teams were playing for the Super Bowl while the Rams were watching it on TV.
So, the Rams just need to keep adding talent to the roster and avoid making the mistake of reaching for a receiver, even though they could really, really use some help for Sam Bradford.Â
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